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by drob on 2018-06-17 (UTC).

A #tidyverse simulation to demonstrate that if you wait for two heads in a row, it takes 6 flips on average, while you wait for a heads then a tails, it takes 4 flips on average

h/t @CutTheKnotMath #rstats pic.twitter.com/V0zgOmCy7t

— David Robinson (@drob) June 17, 2018
learningtutorial
by drob on 2018-06-17 (UTC).

Also a base #rstats matrix approach pic.twitter.com/GV16iFGRoV

— David Robinson (@drob) June 17, 2018
learningtutorial
by drob on 2018-06-18 (UTC).

I've been thinking about why this is counterintuitive, even (especially?) to people experienced in probability. I think it's because effects like linearity of expected value spoil us in being able to treat events as independent even if they aren't https://t.co/mJd8h4vVGy

— David Robinson (@drob) June 18, 2018
learningtutorial

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